This is the first edition of a new report series from The Checkout, tracking the trends, data, and shifts shaping European commerce.
This report covers the European consumer economy, DTC and eCommerce, how Europeans discover and buy, the categories that are winning, and AI in commerce.
The report draws on public data from Eurostat, the ECB, ING, Capgemini, EuroCommerce, PLMA, Alantra, Whatnot, and others. Future editions will include proprietary survey data, brand deep-dives, and operator interviews.
Let's dive in.
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1. The European consumer economy
Consumer confidence has stalled
The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Indicator dropped to −16.3 in March 2026, its lowest point since October 2023. After a brief recovery through mid-2025, sentiment has deteriorated steadily since the autumn.
Consumer Confidence Indicator
Eurozone monthly reading, Mar 2025 – Mar 2026
Data: European Commission, via Trading Economics
Inflation has cooled, but not evenly
Headline inflation across the Eurozone fell to 1.9% by late 2025, within the ECB's target range. But the picture varies sharply by market. France sits at just 0.7%, one of Europe's lowest readings. Germany is at 2.6%. The UK remains above 3.0%, squeezing consumer brands on both input costs and retail pricing.
CPI Inflation by Market
Annual rate, latest reading (late 2025 / early 2026)
Data: Eurostat; ONS (UK)
Wages are up but Europeans are saving more
Eurozone real wages grew 2.6% in 2025, yet household consumption rose just 1.2%, half the pace of wage growth with many Europeans saving instead of spending. Households are now putting aside more than €0.15 of every euro earned — a savings rate that, outside the pandemic, hasn't been this high in three decades. France, Germany, and the Netherlands are the most cautious markets, with savings ratios well above the 2015–2019 average of 12.6%.
Real Wages vs Consumption Growth
Eurozone, 2025
Data: ING Economic Research, Consumer Outlook 2026
Eurozone Household Savings Rate
Share of income saved, 2015–2025
Data: ING Economic Research; Eurostat
The Buy European movement is real, and it may be permanent
The tariff war has triggered something bigger than a pricing adjustment. Over 60% of European consumers say they want to increase their consumption of European products, according to a five-country survey by the University of Cologne. More than a third (36%) of German consumers now reject buying US products entirely. In France, 62% support calls to boycott American goods. In Sweden, 70% have considered or actively participated in a boycott. In Denmark, 50% report deliberately avoiding US products.
Levi's flagged "rising anti-Americanism" and a shift toward European products in its UK regulatory filing, citing a $30 million revenue impact.
Critically, the ECB's research found this shift is preference-driven, not price-driven. Among the 44% of Eurozone consumers willing to substitute away from US products, the median substitution score was 95 out of 100 — and it didn't change whether the tariff was 5%, 10%, or 20%. Higher-income consumers are more likely to switch, not less. The ECB concludes this may signal "a long-term structural shift in consumer preferences away from US products and brands."
Tariff Backlash: Willingness to Shift from US Products
% of European consumers willing to switch, by category
Data: ECB Blog, April–May 2025
2. The European DTC and eCommerce landscape
European eCommerce is approaching €900 billion
European B2C ecommerce is projected to reach approximately €901 billion in 2025, extending a 7% annual growth rate from the €842 billion recorded in 2024 (4.6% in real terms). Confirmed 2025 figures are expected in the EuroCommerce 2026 report this autumn.
But the more interesting story is where growth is happening. Central and Eastern Europe grew 59% across major marketplace networks in 2025. The Nordics expanded 37%. Smaller markets — Luxembourg, Norway, Cyprus, Greece, Portugal — each recorded growth exceeding 100%, from lower bases. Meanwhile, the top five Western European markets (Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland) still represent over 73% of total GMV.
Ecommerce Growth Is Redistributing
Growth by European region, 2025 (Tradebyte network)
Data: Tradebyte / Ecommerce News, 2026
France has overtaken the UK as Europe's largest eCommerce market at €175.3 billion, though the comparison is complicated by methodology: France's figure includes services, while the UK's ONS-reported £127.4 billion covers goods-only retail. On a like-for-like basis, the EuroCommerce corrigendum puts the UK at €150 billion — still second, but a narrower gap than the headline numbers suggest.
Cross-border eCommerce reached €358.7 billion — 36% of all European online sales — growing 10% year over year. 70% of that (€247.5 billion) flows through marketplaces: Amazon, Temu, eBay, AliExpress, Etsy. For brands planning European expansion, the playbook is clear: established markets for scale, emerging markets for growth, and marketplaces for cross-border reach.
Cross-Border Ecommerce Breakdown
€359B total — where it flows
Data: Cross-Border Commerce Europe, 2024/2025
Private labels are now worth €387 billion and still gaining share
European private label sales reached €387 billion across 17 markets in 2025, up €13.8 billion from the prior year. Market share hit 38.8%, gaining another 0.33 percentage points. Eight European markets now exceed 40% private label share. Switzerland leads at 52.3% — the only market above 50%.
The fastest-growing markets: Spain (+1.1 percentage points), Austria (+0.7), Netherlands (+0.5), and Poland (+0.5). Across Germany, the UK, and France, private label's collective share reached 40.4%. The strongest category gains came in confectionery and snacks (+0.6 points) and perishable food (+0.4 points). Pet food was the only major category where private label lost ground.
This isn't slowing down. Private label is the single biggest competitive force reshaping European grocery and personal care — and it's the real threat for DTC brands in those categories.
Private Label Market Share by Country
% of total grocery market, 2025 (MAT W52)
Data: PLMA 2025 Private Label Market Report; NielsenIQ
Shopify's full-year 2025: $11.6 billion in revenue, Europe its fastest-growing region
Shopify closed 2025 with $11.6 billion in revenue (up 30% YoY) and $378 billion in GMV (up 29.5%). International revenue outside North America grew 36% for the year. Europe was the standout: EMEA GMV grew 49% reported (42% constant currency) in Q2 2025 — outpacing local ecommerce markets by 4–5x — and international GMV grew 41% in Q3 with Europe leading.
There are now approximately 665,000 Shopify stores in Europe, representing 27% of the platform's global merchant base. France and India each added 30,000+ stores in 2024–2025. B2B GMV nearly doubled for the year, up 96%. Management guided Q1 2026 revenue growth in the low 30% range.
The UK remains Shopify's largest European market, but the platform's growth in continental Europe — particularly France and Germany — signals that the European DTC stack is increasingly Shopify-native.
Shopify EMEA Growth
Full-year 2025 — GMV growth by region
Data: Shopify Q4 2025 Financial Results; Uptek Analysis
Temu and Shein are Europe's fastest-growing retailers
China-direct platforms are building massive European customer bases. Temu reached 97 million monthly active users across the EU in 2024; Shein hit 125 million. Germany leads both platforms.
Temu's European GMV reached an estimated €10–12 billion in 2024, growing 63% year over year, with projections of €20 billion+ by 2026. Both are pivoting hard to Europe as US growth slows under tariff pressure — and accelerating ad spend to match.
Regulators are responding. The EU accelerated the removal of the €150 de minimis customs threshold from 2028 to 2026 and is considering a €2 flat fee on all small e-commerce parcels — measures aimed squarely at Temu and Shein's high-volume, low-value shipping model.
And the competitive pressure is intensifying: JD.com launched Joybuy across six EU countries in March 2026 — a third major Chinese marketplace entering Europe alongside Temu and Shein.
3. How Europeans discover and buy
Social commerce has tripled in three years
35% of consumers bought a product directly through a social media platform in 2025 — not clicking an ad and buying on a brand's site, but purchasing on or via the platform itself — up from 24% in 2024 and just 16% in 2023. But adoption varies dramatically across Europe. The UK leads at 54%, followed by the Netherlands (45%), Sweden (43%), and Spain (29%). Germany sits at 27%, Italy at 20%, and France at 19% — a striking gap given France's position as Europe's largest ecommerce market.
Social Commerce Adoption by Country
% who bought via social platform, 2025
Data: Capgemini Research Institute, October 2025
Instagram and YouTube are the dominant social commerce platforms in Europe, with Instagram ranked first by 33% of social buyers (up from 21% in 2023) and YouTube second at 28%. Facebook sits at 18%, TikTok at 15%, and WhatsApp at 7%.
Social Commerce Growth 2023–2025
% of consumers who bought via social platform
Data: Capgemini Research Institute, 2023–2025
Live shopping is crossing into the mainstream
Live shopping across North America and Europe is now an estimated $22 billion industry, with Whatnot commanding roughly 60% market share. Whatnot reported over $8 billion in live GMV in 2025, more than doubling year over year. The platform is now live in the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Austria.
The UK market is growing fastest. First-time buyers on Whatnot grew 374% year over year. UK sellers average 21 hours of live broadcasting per week, with daily sellers averaging £30,000 in monthly revenue. Women's fashion alone generates over 500,000 viewing hours monthly. And 34% of British buyers say they tune in primarily for a seller's personality, not just the deals — live commerce is building the kind of personal connection that traditional ecommerce struggles with.
The fastest-growing categories on live platforms tell their own story: beauty (791% growth), electronics (444%), jewellery (259%), and women's fashion (223%). These are high-consideration categories where seeing a product demonstrated in real time builds confidence — exactly where static product pages fall short.
Live Shopping: Fastest-Growing Categories
YoY growth on Whatnot, 2025
Data: Whatnot 2026 Live Selling Report
TikTok Live is adding a second front
Live shopping isn't just a Whatnot phenomenon. TikTok's live commerce format is expanding across Europe, powered by the platform's 200 million monthly active European users (up from 175 million a year earlier). TikTok Shop launched in France, Germany, and Italy on 31 March 2025, adding to existing operations in the UK, Spain, and Ireland — with the Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, and Sweden expected next. Over 200,000 UK businesses now sell through the platform, and the UK hosts over 6,000 live shopping events daily.
Globally, live shopping sessions on TikTok saw 84% more sales in 2025 than the prior year. Black Friday 2025 was TikTok Shop's highest-grossing day ever in the UK, with sellers moving 27 items per second. Beauty is the standout category — in the UK, one beauty product sells every second on TikTok. The format thrives on impulse, demonstration, and creator trust — the same dynamics driving Whatnot's growth.
Between Whatnot and TikTok Live, European brands now have two scaled live commerce platforms to build on — each with different audiences and economics. Whatnot skews toward collectibles, enthusiast categories, and dedicated sellers; TikTok Live skews toward beauty, fashion, and creator-led discovery. The operators who build for both formats will have the strongest position as live commerce matures.
4. The categories that are winning
Health, wellness, and functional food are the fastest-growing categories in UK food and drink
The Alantra Food & Beverage Fast 50 — which ranks the UK's fastest-growing privately-owned food and drink companies by two-year revenue CAGR — tells a striking story. All five of this year's top-ranked businesses are in health and wellness:
- DIRTEA (functional mushrooms, 230% CAGR)
- Goodrays (CBD drinks, 218%)
- Tonic Health (supplements, 198%)
- TRIP (CBD-infused drinks, 178%)
- Spacegoods (functional foods, 177%).
The average CAGR across the top five is 190% — the highest in the report's 15-year history.
Roughly a third of all 50 companies in the ranking operate in health and wellness. The number of functional food firms in the ranking has doubled since 2019, from four to eight. The UK's functional drinks market grew 54% in the past year, according to Ocado data cited in the report.
The broader European supplements market backs this up: ~€42 billion in 2025, growing at 7–8.5% CAGR, with 40%+ of sales now online. The fastest growth is in functional and personalised nutrition — gut health, immunity, cognitive function. Among Gen Z and Millennials, roughly two-thirds have purchased a functional food product in the past year. The products winning sit at the intersection of supplements and food: not a pill, not a snack, but something in between.
Alantra Fast 50: Top 5 Are All Health & Wellness
2-year compound annual sales growth rate
Data: Alantra Food & Beverage Fast 50, 2025
Beauty and skincare are outperforming everything else online
Online beauty in Europe is growing at roughly 10.9% CAGR, with the market worth approximately $16.5 billion in 2024. In the UK specifically, beauty ecommerce grew 10.3% YoY in Q4 2025, with haircare and skincare both posting weekly growth above 20% — haircare hit 30%+ in January 2026. Beauty AOV rose 9% year over year.
Cosmetics and wellness now account for 20% of all European ecommerce purchases. Premium beauty lines are outpacing the overall market nearly twofold. The European cosmetics market hit €104 billion in retail sales in 2024.
UK Online Beauty Sub-Category Growth
Weekly YoY growth, Jan 2026
Data: IMRG, 2026
Pet care is the breakout space
In the UK, pet care was the single fastest-growing ecommerce category in Q4 2025, with shipment volumes up 35.2% year over year, driven by premium products and subscription models. Brands like Untamed (premium cat food, 126% CAGR) and Butternut Box (fresh dog food, 90% CAGR) both feature in the Alantra Fast 50. The wellness trend is extending to pets: consumers are applying the same "real ingredients, no fillers" logic they use for their own food to what they feed their animals.
Meanwhile, fashion is going the other direction. UK fashion ecommerce shipments fell 9.1% in Q4 2025, with AOV down 3%. Homewares collapsed 24.6%. The only fashion sub-category growing is baby and toddler, which was up 50%+ YoY.
UK Ecommerce Q4 2025: Winners and Losers
Shipment volume growth YoY by category
Data: ChannelX / Scurri, Q4 2025
5. AI meets European commerce
The EU AI Act is live
The EU AI Act is rolling out in stages: general-purpose AI rules from August 2025, high-risk requirements from August 2026, full compliance by August 2027. Product recommendations, dynamic pricing, and customer-facing chatbots all fall under its transparency requirements.
European shoppers are adopting AI tools but trust comes with conditions
One in four consumers globally has used Gen AI shopping tools in 2025, up from 20% in 2023, with a further 31% planning to try them. Adoption is accelerating, but satisfaction hasn't kept pace. Nearly three-quarters (73%) of consumers have used a chatbot for product queries at least once — yet only 57% are satisfied with the experience. The gap between trial and loyalty is wide.
Gen AI Shopping Tool Adoption
% of consumers who have used Gen AI for shopping
Data: Capgemini Research Institute, 2023–2025
AI adoption is growing fast in the UK
In the UK specifically, 80% of shoppers now use AI tools for shopping or product research. The primary use case is deal-finding (33%), followed by saving time (18%) and personalised recommendations (16%). But 74% of UK shoppers have abandoned a purchase due to lack of immediate answers, suggesting AI is being adopted for efficiency, not novelty.
Consumers trust AI that explains itself and want boundaries before it acts
The trust picture is more complex than simple scepticism. Consumers want AI to explain itself: 69% trust a digital assistant when it explains why it made a recommendation, and 66% trust it more when it provides clear reasoning. But 76% want strict boundaries — the ability to set spending limits, product categories, and rules before AI acts on their behalf.
Consumer AI Trust Conditions
What shoppers demand from AI in commerce
Data: Capgemini Research Institute, October 2025, N=12,000
Data privacy is the biggest friction point
71% of consumers are worried about how Gen AI collects and uses their personal data, browsing history, and shopping habits. Over half (52%) would switch retailers for better data-protection policies. And while 66% of consumers are aware of synthetic influencers in advertising, only 52% trust them — with two-thirds (67%) expecting brands to clearly disclose AI-generated ads. The EU AI Act's transparency mandates aren't just regulatory overhead; they align with what consumers are already demanding.
The autonomous purchase gap
Only 13% of consumers globally have allowed AI to complete a purchase on their behalf — despite 70% saying they'd be comfortable with it in principle. The gap between willingness and action is a trust deficit that commerce brands haven't yet solved.
6. European DTC is producing exits — and the multiples tell a story
PE and corporate buyers are competing for the same brands
18% of the businesses in the Alantra Food & Beverage Fast 50 now have private equity backing — and several more announced fundraises or exits in the past year.
- Goodrays closed a €5.7 million Series A, backed by Vernon and Tess Daly.
- TRIP raised from The Equity Studio.
- Untamed (premium cat food) completed a £10 million Series B from Five Seasons Ventures, Redrice, and Coefficient Capital.
- Butternut Box bolstered its war chest with a £75 million debt financing round.
Trade buyers are also increasingly active, with larger brands swooping on high-growth early-stage companies to capitalise on emerging trends. Clearly Drinks was acquired by consumer products group Supreme for £15.6 million. Private equity group 3i sold pet food company MPM to Partners Group for ~£400 million — a 3.2x return on its original investment, highlighting the attractive returns available in food and drink even at later maturity stages.
Huel was acquired by Danone for €1 billion
Danone acquired Huel in March 2026 for approximately €1 billion (~£865 million), making it one of the largest European DTC exits in the category. Huel's financials at the time of acquisition: £250 million in revenue (up 16% year over year), EBITDA of £18 million (up 86%), and an EBITDA margin of 8.5% — implying a ~4x revenue multiple.
Unilever bet big on Grüns
Unilever acquired US greens supplement company Grüns for a reported $1.2 billion. Founded in 2023, Grüns makes daily nutrient gummies packed with 60+ ingredients and has already built over 1 million customers, 95,000+ five-star reviews, and distribution across Target, Walmart, Costco, and the #1 position in greens supplements on Amazon. The brand ships 10 million gummies daily.
Grüns joins Unilever's growing wellbeing roster alongside Liquid I.V., Nutrafol, Olly, and SmartyPants. The message is clear: Unilever is shedding food and doubling down on wellness and supplements — exactly the categories producing the fastest growth in the Alantra Fast 50 and the broadest consumer demand across Europe. For European supplement founders, the acquirer pool just expanded significantly.
Applied Nutrition: A London IPO that worked
Applied Nutrition listed on the London Stock Exchange in October 2024 at a £350 million valuation, raising £157.5 million — the largest UK consumer IPO since 2021. The sports nutrition brand priced at 140p per share and was oversubscribed. It demonstrated that London's public markets are open to consumer brands — if the growth profile and category are right. Sports nutrition and functional supplements, again, are the categories that clear the bar.
Vinted: Europe's resale giant has passed €1 billion in revenue
Vinted — Europe's largest second-hand marketplace — posted €1.1 billion in revenue in 2025, up 38% year over year, with GMV reaching €10.8 billion (+47%). Net profit dipped to €62 million (from €77 million in 2024) as the company invested in geographic expansion — launching in Latvia, Estonia, and Slovenia — and built out logistics infrastructure (Vinted Go in Spain and Portugal) and payments (Vinted Pay). Free cash flow still grew 36% to €137 million. Vinted is reportedly exploring a fundraise or secondary sale at a €8 billion valuation.
7. What operators should watch
Europeans have more purchasing power than at any point since 2019 and they're hoarding it
Real wages grew 2.6% in 2025, but consumption grew just 1.2%. Savings rates are at three-decade highs, driven by housing anxiety, sticky inflation expectations, and an ageing population that saves by default.
Temu and Shein own the value end and they're accelerating
With 97 million and 125 million EU users respectively. €10–12 billion in Temu GMV alone. Both are pivoting to Europe as US tariffs bite. EU regulation (de minimis removal, GPSR) will slow them — but won't stop them. The DTC opportunity is in everything they can't credibly sell: premium, sustainable, European-made.
AI regulation is a feature, not a bug
EU AI Act compliance is table stakes by 2027. But being privacy-first is a genuine differentiator against US-built commerce tools. European operators who build for compliance from day one will have an advantage as regulation tightens globally.
Cross-border often means selling via marketplace
70% of cross-border turnover flows through marketplaces. DTC-only strategies limit geographic reach. A hybrid approach — owned channels for brand building, marketplaces for distribution — is the pragmatic path for most European brands.
Live and social commerce are huge opportunities
35% of European consumers bought through a social platform in 2025 — triple the rate two years ago. Live shopping is a $22 billion market in Europe and North America, with Whatnot's GMV doubling year over year and TikTok Shop now live in six European markets.
“Buy European” is a structural shift, not a news cycle
Over 60% of European consumers want to increase purchases of European products. The ECB found this is preference-driven, not price-driven — and higher-income consumers are switching more, not less. US brands are already seeing sales impact. European-origin brands have a tailwind that may not fade when the headlines do.
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