eCommerce growth across Central Europe steadies at 8%

Central Europe's eCommerce market is entering a calmer, more predictable phase, according to a new white paper from ECDB and Mastercard covering eCommerce across Germany, Poland, Switzerland, Austria, Greece, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Cyprus, Slovenia, and Malta.

After a pandemic-driven surge and a 2022 correction, regional online spending is forecast to grow around 8% this year and next, broadly in line with European and global averages.

In absolute terms, online spending across the region is set to rise from €191.3bn in 2025 to €206.6bn in 2026, reaching €223.5bn by 2027. The report frames this convergence around 8% annual growth as a sign of a structurally sound market, improving long-term planning confidence for merchants and platforms.

The headline figure masks a highly concentrated market. Germany alone is expected to generate close to €118.7bn in 2026, roughly 57% of regional revenue. Poland (15%) and Switzerland (9%) are the next largest, but materially smaller. Per-capita spending tells a different story: Switzerland leads at €2,030, ahead of Germany's €1,420 and Poland's €825.

Maturity also dictates pace. Highly penetrated markets such as Germany and Switzerland are predicted to see slower growth, while less-saturated Poland (around 9%) and Greece (around 11%) expand faster.

The report's central argument is that the growth engine has changed. Purchases per customer are rising faster than either the number of online shoppers or average order value, making customer retention the decisive battleground.